The Christmas break is a great time to look back on the previous year, work out what you did well, what could have been better and reset your goals for 2009.
It is the ideal time to review your personal goals, property goals and any other business goals. And crucially make sure you write them down! This will make a significant difference in how you do overall this year. Like many property investors I have seen some values drop, and some properties cause more issues than others, but have also seen big positives with such dramatic drops in borrowing rates. I also think, more than ever, the last 4 months of 2008 made me even more glad I invest in property rather than
a) Not invest in anything or
b) Invest in the stock market or a traditional pension.
While some of the property headlines are pretty negative this is understandable but it is all relative. Compared to the FTSE top 500 companies which saw drops of 33% over the last 12 months ie most pension funds saw a drop in value by a third, the UK property market dropping by an average of 12% over the last 12 months is a significant difference.
Within that average as always the most affordable parts of the UK did better eg Scotland dropped by just 2%, and areas such as Hull, Hartlepool and Cumbria all dropped by less than 5% as an average over 12 months.
But also remember if people didn’t need to move they generally didn’t move – the majority of people selling in the last 6-9 months were those who were “distressed” sellers or had to take a low offers – which was always going to have dramatic knock on effect on average prices – but this doesn’t clearly tell us the full story on affordability – and until probably later this year it is hard to say what true values are in many areas.
What is for sure, as soon as more credit comes back in, and there are clear indications this is continuing to improve, then low offers will be less likely to be accepted.
No one forecast such large credit restrictions in 2008 and the knock on effect in certain property markets, and it is hard to be sure what will happen in 2009 but one thing is clear – affordability and attractive rental yields are at the best they have been in the UK for the last 3-4 years.
Gross rental yields, which were at around 5-6% a year ago, are now at 6.5-8% due to prices dropping and rents rising in many areas.
Prices may have dropped by around 12% as an average across the UK, but if you have a varied portfolio say spread across the UK and a couple of emerging markets, your overall yield should have risen with borrowing rates dropping and rents rising. Compare this to owning shares in large companies, where it is unlikely dividends will have risen as they will often be cash poor with cashflow issues.
This makes buy to let more attractive than ever in the UK and markets such as Czech Republic!
So how long will these opportunities last?
Six months? 12 Months?
Already borrowing rates are improving, with libor rate down to under 3%, and several lenders are close to increasing the LTV they will lend, as long as rental coverage is there. It is great to be able to find deals again where you can invest for very little funds and make over £100 net a month!
I have spoken to 1-2 investors who have said they are looking to wait 6-9 months when they think prices will be lower.
Most people saying this have no real reason for saying this, apart from the fact they have read this may happen in the newspapers – and have no real way of measuring this as are not too close to the actual numbers – but it allows them to put off making a decision for a while – bit like saying I ll get fit in the New Year! Often people who would say this would not understand what is good value and what is not – and you won’t learn this in the newspapers! You should have your own clear idea on what is good value based on rental return and local affordability.
The main reason it is daft to wait is if you can buy an investment property now, for 20% below today’s market value ie perhaps as much as 30% less than last years value, tie up very little money in the process and have positive cashflow why risk waiting?!
When the bottom of the market is called it will probably be 2-3 months after the actual bottom of the market has occurred and if everyone suddenly realises the value of their property in these high yielding areas, and mortgages are more available, then you won’t be able to negotiate a 25% discount any longer that’s for sure!
Actually as soon as 85% mortgages are back, vendors will be under less pressure to give big discounts.
Read full article: Property Investment in the UK
0 comments:
Post a Comment